Why the Buick Avista is a long shot for production

DETROIT -- For the second straight Detroit auto show, Buick pulled a surprise -- this year, it's the Avista 2+2 coupe concept -- that has put it on many people’s most buzzworthy lists.

But with this latest tease -- last year’s was the svelte Avenir sedan concept -- the questions are growing louder about whether Buick is serious about adding any of this sexy sheet metal to its lineup.

My bet: The Avenir stands a good shot at production in a few years. The Avista is far less likely to grace a Buick showroom.

The main reason: China isn’t much of a coupe market. Considering that country accounted for around 80 percent of Buick’s 1.2 million vehicle sales in 2015, conversations about Buick product planning typically start and end with China.

What about Opel? Buick increasingly shares models with its European cousin, the latest example being the Cascada convertible that hits Buick’s U.S. showrooms this month.

But I doubt prospective Opel volumes would be enough to make General Motors’ bean counters’ eyes light up.

That leaves the U.S., where relatively low-volume Buick already will have a coupe in the form of the Cascada drop-top.

Add it all up, and global Buick chief Duncan Aldred concedes that the Avista is more of a buzz generator than a production-primed car. He acknowledges that China would be a tough sell for a coupe. The decision would come down to U.S. viability, though he could see it potentially working in Europe, too, he says.

“We’ve got a great halo coming” with the Cascada, he said in an interview. “Looking to the next gen, I’d like another halo. Whether that’s [the Avista] or something else, I don’t know.”