Prices of used cars and light trucks up to 5 years old will drop 3 to 4.5 percent this year, fueled by a rising supply of the vehicles and an increase in off-lease volume, predicts NADA Used Car Guide's monthly Perspective report.
An exception to the trend: pickups, whose prices are expected to rise.
The supply of used vehicles up to 5 years old will increase 8 percent to almost 12 million this year and off-lease vehicle volume will grow 20 percent to 2.35 million, according to the Perspective report, which highlights industry trends.
"The recovery in new vehicles sales means more used supply will become available as time progresses," the report said.
Prices of subcompact, compact and midsize cars will fall most this year, the report predicted.
The supply of used subcompact cars -- a segment in which new-car sales rose 67 percent from 2007 to 2012 -- will increase "a substantial" 24 percent this year, the report said.
At the same time, the subcompact car segment's collective price will drop 6 percent or more, the report predicted.
Meanwhile, the used full-size and midsize pickup segments are not saddled with heavy influxes of vehicles and will get a lift from lower gasoline prices, the report said.
The segments' collective price is expected to rise 5 percent or more.
Factors such as a growing economy, lower unemployment, higher home prices and lower gasoline prices will help support overall used-vehicle prices this year, the report said.
But it added: "Even so, these tailwinds won't be quite strong enough to offset the negatives associated with less favorable credit conditions, new market pricing pressure -- and most importantly -- an expanding pool of used vehicles."