Russia's car market will be Europe's biggest by 2020, forecaster says
Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News Europe
  • Automotive News China
  • Automobilwoche
AN-LOGO-BLUE
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Account
  • login
  • HOME
  • NEWS
    • Dealers
    • Automakers & Suppliers
    • News by Brand
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Coronavirus Coverage
    • China
    • Shift
    • Mobility Report
    • Special Reports
    • Digital Edition Archive
    • This Week's Issue
    • VW badges rtrs web.jpg
      VW Group operating profit drops by half in 2020
      Washington Auto Show postponed amid ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
      Subaru expands Feeding America donation, advertising
      Mass. dealership group to pay $1 million in unemployment scheme settlement
    • Audi to build EVs at new company majority owned by VW Group
      European Chamber rules out American, European export curbs as cause of chip shortage
      Used-vehicle market posts first contraction in 2020
      Tight chip supplies could persist for as long as a decade
    • Detroit Aerial Panorama during sunset
      Developing future workers to fuel growth in mobility
      Getting around in Las Vegas often involves long waits for a crowded monorail ride, below, or taking escalators up and down to cross elevated pedestrian walkways along the Strip.
      Las Vegas offers best and worst in transportation challenges
      Where is transportation headed?
      In pandemic environment, RV industry ‘roaring back'
    • Crashes involving electric vehicles, such as that of a Tesla Model X in California in 2018, pose battery-fire concerns for first responders.
      NTSB says automakers need to better arm emergency responders
      An EVgo electric vehicle charging station
      Charging network EVgo near merger to go public, report says
      The Cruise AV autonomous vehicle, based on the Chevy Bolt
      Honda taps GM's Cruise to bring new mobility to Japan
      Aurora teams with PACCAR on self-driving truck development
    • Elon Musk interview
      Tesla’s Model Y, on sale since March, is a showcase of EV technologies competitors will benchmark.
      Technologies of Electrification
      Cadillac’s Lyriq EV will be unveiled Aug. 6.
      Future Product Pipeline
      A CALL TO ACTION
    • GM, Unifor go from strife to ‘right solutions’
      Crashes involving electric vehicles, such as that of a Tesla Model X in California in 2018, pose battery-fire concerns for first responders.
      NTSB says automakers need to better arm emergency responders
      The Toyota C+Pod’s interior has a stripped-down, minimalistic feel, with big knobs and buttons.
      EV design for Japan's tight turns
      Genesis' delayed relaunch back on track with new crossovers, upcoming EV
    • Access F&I
    • Fixed Ops Journal
    • Marketing
    • Used Cars
    • Retail Technology
    • Sales
    • Best Practices
    • Dealership Buy/Sell
    • NADA
    • NADA Show
    • Automakers
    • Manufacturing
    • Suppliers
    • Regulations & Safety
    • Executives
    • Talk From The Top
    • Leading Women Network
    • Guide to Economic Development
    • PACE Awards
    • Management Briefing Seminars
    • World Congress
    • Aston Martin
    • BMW
      • Mini
      • Rolls-Royce
    • Daimler
      • Mercedes Benz
      • Smart
    • Fiat Chrysler
      • Alfa Romeo
      • Chrysler
      • Dodge
      • Ferrari
      • Fiat
      • Jeep
      • Maserati
      • Ram
    • Ford
      • Lincoln
    • General Motors
      • Buick
      • Cadillac
      • Chevrolet
      • GMC
      • Holden
    • Honda
      • Acura
    • Hyundai
      • Genesis
      • Kia
    • Mazda
    • McLaren
    • Mitsubishi
    • Nissan
      • Infiniti
    • PSA
      • Citroen
      • Opel
      • Peugeot
    • Renault
    • Subaru
    • Suzuki
    • Tata
      • Jaguar
      • Land Rover
    • Tesla
    • Toyota
      • Lexus
    • Volkswagen
      • Audi
      • Bentley
      • Bugatti
      • Lamborghini
      • Porsche
      • Seat
      • Skoda
    • Volvo
    • (Discontinued Brands)
    • Virtual reveals (Sponsored)
      • GENESIS: 2021 GV80
      • KIA: 2021 K5
      • LEXUS: 2021 IS
      • NISSAN: 2021 Rogue
      • TOYOTA: 2021 Venza and 2021 Sienna
    • Auto Shows
      • Detroit Auto Show
      • New York Auto Show
      • Los Angeles Auto Show
      • Chicago Auto Show
      • Geneva Auto Show
      • Paris Auto Show
      • Frankfurt Auto Show
      • Toronto Auto Show
      • Tokyo Auto Show
      • Shanghai Auto Show
      • Beijing Auto Show
    • Future Product Pipeline
    • Photo Galleries
    • Car Cutaways
    • Design
  • OPINION
    • Blogs
    • Cartoons
    • Keith Crain
    • Automotive Views with Jason Stein
    • Columnists
    • China Commentary
    • Editorials
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Send us a Letter
    • Nikon turns lens on auto factory, build quality
      Bosch_information_domain_computer web.jpg
      Bosch, Continental battle to supply the brain of the connected car
      A victory lap for Detroit car design
      Stellantis_logo_blue_background web.jpg
      In 'merger of equals,' PSA is buying FCA, Stellantis prospectus says
    • view gallery
      1 photos
      A New GM
      view gallery
      1 photos
      The Bridge
      view gallery
      12 photos
      Leo Michael's best of 2020
      view gallery
      1 photos
      UAW Deal
    • Shifting gears away from the stick shift
      SEMA still a wonderful circus
      Penske still has plenty of races to win
      Ford's turn in the hot seat
    • January 19, 2021 | Small car part causes big problem
      January 12, 2021 | Automotive industry shined in 2020
      December 8, 2020 | In a year that lacked luster, All-Stars showed how to shine
      November 24, 2020 | Female talent in automotive is expanding
    • Dan Shine
      Don't totally ‘forget about 2020'
      Jamie Butters
      Big auto show era truly over
      John Possumato
      Missing piece to the mobility puzzle: Helping carless people
      Dave Versical
      Female CMO is new norm
    • How Tesla, GM transformed EV market in 2020
      Is sales recovery nearing an end?
      Beijing's uphill battle to boost EV sales
      Nasdaq-like Star Board poised to become key finance platform
    • EV charging
      Time for U.S. to embrace the EV
      Ford's ‘Finish Strong' ad sets right tone for '21
      UAW settlement brings justice, voting rights
      Dealers should be treated as partners in EVs
    • Is banning ICEs in our best interests?
      GM should share EV risk with dealers
      From Toyota store to hydrogen highway
      Ready to buy Mirai, but where to fuel?
  • DATA CENTER
  • VIDEO
    • AutoNews Now
    • First Shift
    • Special Video Reports
    • Weekend Drive
    • AutoNews Now: Tavares to have 38 direct reports at Stellantis
      AutoNews Now: VW to take 'radical, new approach' with flagship electric sedan
      AutoNews Now: Biden to revisit fuel efficiency rules
      AutoNews Now: Tavares: Stellantis needs to be 'great rather than big'
    • First Shift: Ford prices Takata recall at $610M
      First Shift: Honda to test Cruise AV in Japan
      First Shift: Trump pardons former Google self-driving engineer Levandowski
      First Shift: GM's surprise path to building electric delivery vans in Canada
    • N.J. dealer helps position peers for ‘electric revolution’
      DCH Millburn Audi
      'Finding the diamond in the rough': How 2020's No. 1 dealership retains talent
      Don Johnson Motors
      'Distinctive culture' cuts turnover, carves career paths at Wis. dealership group
      Why 2020 could be a record year for buy-sells
    • Why the pickup is the auto industry's 'battleground'
      Carlos Ghosn's quest to restore his reputation
      Why Ford must execute to avoid 'deep trouble'
      Why Honda is 'locked and loaded' for 2020
  • EVENTS & AWARDS
    • Events
    • Awards
    • Congress Conversations
    • Retail Forum: NADA
    • Canada Congress
    • Europe Congress Conversations
    • Leading Women Conference
    • Fixed Ops Journal Forum
    • ANE Shift
    • Shift: Mobility at a Crossroads
    • Shift: The Future of Mobility (CES)
    • 100 Leading Women
    • 40 Under 40 Retail
    • All-Stars
    • Best Dealerships To Work For
    • PACE Program
    • Rising Stars
    • Europe Rising Stars
  • JOBS
  • AN Solutions
  • +MORE
    • Leading Women Network
    • Podcasts
    • Webinars
    • In the Driver's Seat
    • Publishing Partners
    • Classifieds
    • Companies on the Move
    • People on the Move
    • Newsletters
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • RSS Feeds
    • Shift: A Podcast About Mobility
    • Special Reports Podcasts
    • Daily Drive Podcasts
    • AAM
    • Gentex
    • Reputation.com
    • Ricardo
    • Ricardo
    • Allstate: Want more from your F&I?
    • Ally: Navigating the future of automotive retailing
    • Amazon Web Services: Any place, any time, any channel
    • Amazon Web Services: The power of the cloud
    • Amazon Web Services: Universal translator: Harnessing sensor data to build better automotive software
    • Epic Games: Transforming the auto industry with digital assets
    • FTI Consulting: Crisis as a catalyst for change
    • Google: 5 trends shaping the auto industry's approach to a new normal
    • IHS Markit: Automotive loyalty in the wake of the COVID-19 recession
    • IHS Markit: Autonomous vehicles: Automotive and transportation disruption
    • IHS Markit: COVID-19: The future mobility delusion
    • IHS Markit: The battery electric vehicle (BEV)
    • Level5: 2020 Automotive E-Commerce Report
    • Naked Lime: Bring social reputation together as part of big-picture marketing
    • Wells Fargo Auto: Switching gears from LIBOR to SOFR
    • Ally: Do It Right
    • DealerSocket
    • Deloitte: Cyber everywhere: Preparing for automotive safety in the face of cyber threats
    • Facebook: The road to a zero-friction future
    • Guide To Economic Development
    • PayPal Credit: How consumer financing helps drive sales for online auto parts retailers
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Global Markets
July 19, 2013 01:00 AM

Russia's car market will be Europe's biggest by 2020, forecaster says

Nick Gibbs
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print

    MOSCOW -- The Russian auto market will overcome its current slump and overtake Germany to become the largest in Europe - and the fifth biggest globally - by 2020 as car ownership increases, a Boston Consulting Group study said.

    Western carmakers including General Motors, Volkswagen, Ford Motor and Renault have invested heavily in Russia on expectations that the market will grow as a rising middle class buy cars for the first time or upgrade aging models.

    The study predicts that Russia can follow Brazil and China in transforming itself from a market targeted by foreign exporters, to one with a dominant share of locally-produced vehicles.

    Boston Consulting forecasts that Russia's auto market will grow by an average annual rate of 6 percent through 2020, when it will reach annual sales volume of 4.4 million, up from 2.9 million in 2012.

    That would make it the fifth largest in the world by sales, after China, the United States, India and Brazil. Last year, Russia ranked seventh in the world after China, the U.S, Japan, Brazil, Germany and India. In 2009 it was tenth largest.

    However, Boston Consulting warned that that Russia still needs to overcome serious hurdles, including volatility in demand, a weak supplier base and high logistics.

    Study co-author Nikolaus Lang, said annual vehicle sales in Russia will grow if the government creates a stable market environment and "if the industry professionalizes along the whole value chain, from developing cars to producing components to manufacturing the cars and selling them."

    Russia was on course to become Europe's biggest market before the 2008 financial crisis hit demand and the availability of credit.

    Market slowdown

    Boston Consulting's forecast for Russia is a bullish prognosis compared with recent figures from the Association of European Business (AEB), which tracks the Russian car market. Data from the AEB showed car sales have fallen for four straight months as Russia's $2.1 trillion economy falters.

    The AEB recently cut its full-year sales forecast to 2.8 million units, which would be a fall of 5 percent, but said it expects government plans to subsidize credit-backed vehicle purchases will boost sales for the remainder of the year.

    Boston Consulting said its prediction takes into account the current weakening of the market. Lang said Russia's underlying strengths remain, including strong demand stemming from low car-ownership, good access to car finance and a willingness of local entrepreneurs to open car dealerships.

    The study said both local and international carmakers were expanding, calculating total production capacity would rise to about 3.3 million vehicles per year by 2016, up from 2.3 million in 2012.

    But, in a sign that many of Russia's less technologically advanced producers are struggling to compete, last year for the first time more cars made by localized international producers were sold in Russia than either imports or domestic brands.

    Supplier weakness

    Weak local suppliers remain a big issue compared with other developing markets such as China, Brazil and India, Lang told Automotive News Europe.

    Automakers said they are able to work with just 10 percent of Russian suppliers immediately, compared with 80 percent in Brazil and 40 percent to 50 percent in China, Lang said.

    Russian suppliers are typically small scale and have inadequate quality levels for latest-generation vehicles. Only 20 percent of domestic parts manufacturers were likely to survive by 2016, the study said.

    While Russia will remain a net importer of vehicles in 2020, exports will also increase, Boston Consulting forecast, as during downswings companies are likely to tap exports from Russia to send to other markets, mainly former Soviet bloc countries.

    There are only 290 cars per 1,000 Russians versus 560 in western Europe and many of those vehicles are old, while a decade of strong growth driven by Russia's mineral wealth is slowly empowering a greater chunk of its population.

    "Fundamentally it is an attractive market in terms of cars per thousand inhabitants and therefore we are bullish long-term - but that doesn't mean that every year will be a good year," said Ewald Kreid, a study co-author.

    The study projects that emerging markets overall will account for 65 percent of global car sales in 2020, more than double the 28 percent for which they accounted in 2000.

    Reuters contributed to this report

    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    Trump 30 years behind on Renault
    Letter
    to the
    Editor

     

     

    Send us a letter

    Have an opinion about this story? Click here to submit a Letter to the Editor, and we may publish it in print.

    Recommended for You
    Trump 30 years behind on Renault
    Tariff delay doesn't ease Euro anxiety
    Europeans face EV crisis
    Europeans face EV crisis
    Sponsored Content: 10-Step Guide to Changing Your Dealership Management System
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    See more newsletter options at autonews.com/newsletters.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Digital Edition
    Automotive News 1-18-21
    THIS WEEK'S EDITION
    See our archive
    Fixed Ops Journal
    Fixed Ops Journal 12-14-20
    Read the issue
    See our archive
    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    Subscribe Today

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    Subscribe Now
    Connect With Us
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter

    Our mission

    The Automotive News mission is to be the primary source of industry news, data and understanding for the industry's decision-makers interested in North America.

    AN-LOGO-BLUE
    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit, Michigan
    48207-2997

    (877) 812-1584

    Email us

    Automotive News
    ISSN 0005-1551 (print)
    ISSN 1557-7686 (online)

    Fixed Ops Journal
    ISSN 2576-1064 (print)
    ISSN 2576-1072 (online)

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • Subscribe
    • Manage your account
    • Reprints
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
    • NEWS
      • Dealers
        • Access F&I
        • Fixed Ops Journal
        • Marketing
        • Used Cars
        • Retail Technology
        • Sales
        • Best Practices
        • Dealership Buy/Sell
        • NADA
        • NADA Show
      • Automakers & Suppliers
        • Automakers
        • Manufacturing
        • Suppliers
        • Regulations & Safety
        • Executives
        • Talk From The Top
        • Leading Women Network
        • Guide to Economic Development
        • PACE Awards
        • Management Briefing Seminars
        • World Congress
      • News by Brand
        • Aston Martin
        • BMW
          • Mini
          • Rolls-Royce
        • Daimler
          • Mercedes Benz
          • Smart
        • Fiat Chrysler
          • Alfa Romeo
          • Chrysler
          • Dodge
          • Ferrari
          • Fiat
          • Jeep
          • Maserati
          • Ram
        • Ford
          • Lincoln
        • General Motors
          • Buick
          • Cadillac
          • Chevrolet
          • GMC
          • Holden
        • Honda
          • Acura
        • Hyundai
          • Genesis
          • Kia
        • Mazda
        • McLaren
        • Mitsubishi
        • Nissan
          • Infiniti
        • PSA
          • Citroen
          • Opel
          • Peugeot
        • Renault
        • Subaru
        • Suzuki
        • Tata
          • Jaguar
          • Land Rover
        • Tesla
        • Toyota
          • Lexus
        • Volkswagen
          • Audi
          • Bentley
          • Bugatti
          • Lamborghini
          • Porsche
          • Seat
          • Skoda
        • Volvo
        • (Discontinued Brands)
      • Cars & Concepts
        • Virtual reveals (Sponsored)
          • GENESIS: 2021 GV80
          • KIA: 2021 K5
          • LEXUS: 2021 IS
          • NISSAN: 2021 Rogue
          • TOYOTA: 2021 Venza and 2021 Sienna
        • Auto Shows
          • Detroit Auto Show
          • New York Auto Show
          • Los Angeles Auto Show
          • Chicago Auto Show
          • Geneva Auto Show
          • Paris Auto Show
          • Frankfurt Auto Show
          • Toronto Auto Show
          • Tokyo Auto Show
          • Shanghai Auto Show
          • Beijing Auto Show
        • Future Product Pipeline
        • Photo Galleries
        • Car Cutaways
        • Design
      • Coronavirus Coverage
      • China
      • Shift
      • Mobility Report
      • Special Reports
      • Digital Edition Archive
      • This Week's Issue
    • OPINION
      • Blogs
      • Cartoons
      • Keith Crain
      • Automotive Views with Jason Stein
      • Columnists
      • China Commentary
      • Editorials
      • Letters to the Editor
      • Send us a Letter
    • DATA CENTER
    • VIDEO
      • AutoNews Now
      • First Shift
      • Special Video Reports
      • Weekend Drive
    • EVENTS & AWARDS
      • Events
        • Congress Conversations
        • Retail Forum: NADA
        • Canada Congress
        • Europe Congress Conversations
        • Leading Women Conference
        • Fixed Ops Journal Forum
        • ANE Shift
        • Shift: Mobility at a Crossroads
        • Shift: The Future of Mobility (CES)
      • Awards
        • 100 Leading Women
        • 40 Under 40 Retail
        • All-Stars
        • Best Dealerships To Work For
        • PACE Program
        • Rising Stars
        • Europe Rising Stars
    • JOBS
    • AN Solutions
    • +MORE
      • Leading Women Network
      • Podcasts
        • Shift: A Podcast About Mobility
        • Special Reports Podcasts
        • Daily Drive Podcasts
      • Webinars
      • In the Driver's Seat
        • AAM
        • Gentex
        • Reputation.com
        • Ricardo
        • Ricardo
      • Publishing Partners
        • Allstate: Want more from your F&I?
        • Ally: Navigating the future of automotive retailing
        • Amazon Web Services: Any place, any time, any channel
        • Amazon Web Services: The power of the cloud
        • Amazon Web Services: Universal translator: Harnessing sensor data to build better automotive software
        • Epic Games: Transforming the auto industry with digital assets
        • FTI Consulting: Crisis as a catalyst for change
        • Google: 5 trends shaping the auto industry's approach to a new normal
        • IHS Markit: Automotive loyalty in the wake of the COVID-19 recession
        • IHS Markit: Autonomous vehicles: Automotive and transportation disruption
        • IHS Markit: COVID-19: The future mobility delusion
        • IHS Markit: The battery electric vehicle (BEV)
        • Level5: 2020 Automotive E-Commerce Report
        • Naked Lime: Bring social reputation together as part of big-picture marketing
        • Wells Fargo Auto: Switching gears from LIBOR to SOFR
        • Ally: Do It Right
        • DealerSocket
        • Deloitte: Cyber everywhere: Preparing for automotive safety in the face of cyber threats
        • Facebook: The road to a zero-friction future
        • Guide To Economic Development
        • PayPal Credit: How consumer financing helps drive sales for online auto parts retailers
      • Classifieds
      • Companies on the Move
      • People on the Move
      • Newsletters
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • RSS Feeds