Automakers who replace their products faster stand to increase market share over the next four years, according to a new industry forecast from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
That bodes well for the Detroit 3 because they are on the cusp of a wave of product redesigns.
The financial company's analysis predicts that General Motors and Ford Motor Co. each will add a point of market share by 2016 because of a slew of critical product replacements.
The forecast anticipates that from the beginning of this year through 2016, GM and Ford will have redesigned or introduced new vehicles that represent 103 percent of their 2012 revenues.
The study, "Car Wars 2014-2017," concludes that for the next few years, U.S. market share will be driven by "showroom age" -- the average age of the products in a brand's portfolio.
"OEMs with the highest replacement rate and youngest relative showroom age have generally gained market share from 2003-2013," the report says.
It says the industry is capitalizing on that correlation by refreshing products more often.
Over the past 20 years, the industry replaced an average of about 16 percent of its volume each year with new models, the study estimates.
At that rate, the industry has turned over its model line about once every 6.3 years.
The report forecasts that automakers plan to increase that pace, replacing 22 percent of their volume each year on average.
If so, that would speed the industry's pace to a complete portfolio turnover of about once every five years.
"Historically, there was tremendous discrepancy between the product cycles of U.S. automakers vs. foreign competitors," the study says, "but this gap has been largely closed.
"In the upcoming model years it appears that most OEMs should have average showroom ages within the 2-3 year range with only slight outliers on either end."