WASHINGTON -- Most automakers will be able to meet 2020 EPA emissions targets with gasoline-powered cars rather than substantially expanding production of electric vehicles, a study says.
Advanced combustion technologies can cut tailpipe emissions 40 percent in new vehicles at a cost to the consumer of about $2,000 a car, the Boston Consulting Group found.
The cost of these technology changes is likely to be half of what was expected three years ago, the internally funded report said.
“This gives OEMs less incentive to aggressively push EVs to meet 2020 emissions regulations,” the Boston-based firm said.
The most common changes likely to be made in gasoline-powered vehicles involve engine downsizing, turbocharging, optimized cooling, electric power steering, direct injection and variable valve timing, the 23-page report said.
These changes, as well as reductions in vehicle mass, will enable most automakers to meet 2020 standards “in a cost-effective manner,” the study said.
The Obama administration is consulting with automakers, California regulators and environmental groups as it prepares to issue a September proposal for 2017-25 fuel economy and emissions targets.
The administration has said it is considering a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 3 to 6 percent a year from 2017 to 2025, resulting in a 47-to-62 mpg requirement for 2025 vehicles. The economics of electric vehicles will continue to harm their sales over the next decade, the report said.
“China and Europe -- not the United States, as many may have thought -- will be the largest markets for EVs in 2020, driven by strong government support,” the study said.
The report cited the high cost of EV batteries and questions about battery durability and charging infrastructure.
EVs will account for 7 percent of new vehicle sales in China in 2020, and 8 percent in Europe, the study predicted.
The Boston Consulting Group study did not say what it expects the administration’s emissions targets to be. The administration plans to make that decision in July 2012.
