DETROIT -- We’ve all heard how the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China are the growth markets of the next decade. But in production terms, which countries are the losers?
Poland, South Korea and Canada, says PwC Autofacts, a unit of accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Not that they’re huge losers. PwC predicts each will see production drop by less than 1 percent between now and 2015.
In fact, the real story is global growth. PwC’s forecast, delivered at a session of the Society of Automotive Analysts Sunday evening, sees light-vehicle production rising over the next five years in countries from China to Portugal to Morocco to Uzbekistan. Only three nations won’t join the rise.
South Korea I can understand. As the won strengthens, Korean automakers need to shift more output to the markets where they sell, and that may cut into exports.
And Poland’s 0.8 percent drop in its compound annual growth reflects competition with a slew of other Eastern European nations.
Less production, eh?
But Canada? Up to now, Canada has been a steady beneficiary of the North American Free Trade Agreement, as Asian automakers, especially, expanded there. Part of that may be due to Canada’s status as a country where health-care costs are fairly predictable, but that’s just one of Canada’s appeals. But if you believe PwC Autofacts, that won’t continue in the near term.
Between 2010 and 2015, PwC says, Canada’s output will post a compound annual growth rate of -0.6 percent. That will drop Canada’s light-vehicle production to an estimated 2.0 million in 2015, vs. Mexico’s estimated 2.5 million -- and Thailand’s 2.7 million.
A PwC analyst said the dip reflects the Detroit 3 shifting a larger share of their output to the United States and Mexico.
PwC estimates South Korea’s compound annual growth rate at -0.7 percent, giving it light-vehicle production of an estimated 3.9 million in 2015, less than Brazil’s estimated 4.6 million.
Oh, and PwC predicts Indian output of 6,017,076 in 2015, or about 11,000 more than Germany’s.
It’s a good time to be in the auto industry, especially if you speak more than one language.