The resale values of 2010 Toyota and Lexus vehicles will not be hurt by Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A.’s massive recall campaign, predict two companies that specialize in projections of residual values.
In separate interviews, Kelley Blue Book and Automotive Lease Guide agree that the recall of 3.8 million Lexus and Toyota vehicles will have virtually no impact on the projected residual values of those new 2010 vehicles. They were recalled to reconfigure accelerator pedals to reduce the risk of unintended acceleration.
Kelley’s 2010 residual-value analysis names Lexus as its best resale value among luxury brands and Toyota as its best resale value among nonluxury brands.
“We haven’t seen any indication that people are trading in their Lexus or Toyota vehicle based on the acceleration problems,” says Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting for Kelley.
James Clark, general manager of Automotive Lease Guide, says “we haven’t seen any reaction, no backlash” in response to the recall.
Kelley and Automotive Lease Guide are expected to detail their respective residual-value rankings today at the Los Angeles Auto Show.
What’s it worth?
Residual values are what a vehicle is projected to be worth at the end of a lease or specific time period. The values help automakers determine monthly lease payments for new vehicles. Higher residual values generally mean lower payments.
Automotive Lease Guide’s predictions are for three years, the length of a typical vehicle lease.
Kelley’s predictions are for five years, the typical length of time a consumer owns a vehicle.
The companies base their predictions on criteria such as current and historical vehicle data, market conditions, segment competition, gasoline prices and fleet sales.
Kelley projects that 2010 Lexus vehicles will retain a collective 39.3 percent of their manufacturer’s suggested retail price after five years, up from a projected 38.7 percent for its 2009 models.
The Toyota brand is projected to retain 38.8 percent of its value after five years, Kelley says. That is down from 42.7 percent for its 2009 models.
Automotive Lease Guide named Acura its 2010 residual-value luxury brand winner, with Lexus taking second place.
The guide projects that Acura will retain 52.2 percent of its sticker price after three years, up from a projection of 50.1 percent for the 2009 model year.
It predicts that second-place luxury brand Lexus will retain 52.1 percent of its value after three years, up from 48.6 percent in 2009.
Subaru at the top
Subaru takes top honors in the guide company’s nonluxury ranking, with a predicted residual value of 52.9 percent after three years. That is down from 54.0 percent in 2009.
Honda -- Automotive Lease Guide’s nonluxury brand leader in the 2009 model year, with a projected residual value of 54.8 percent -- dropped to second place with a projected residual of 52.3 percent for the 2010 model year.
Clark says Subaru ranked highest because of product attributes such as standard all-wheel drive and wide use of turbocharged boxer engines.
He says Subaru had the advantage of not competing in segments such as pickups and minivans, where residual values are lower this year. Clark says the brand has done well with younger buyers -- specifically with its Impreza WRX, which has a turbocharged engine.
Says Clark: “They’ve really taken over from some of the other imports like Honda, in terms of that younger, tuner crowd that’s looking for performance in a compact car.”