September's light-vehicle sales rate will fall to 8.8 million units, consumer auto site Edmunds.com said. That would be the lowest rate in nearly 28 years, tying the worst demand on record.
After the cash-for-clunkers program boosted August sales to their first year-over-year increase since October 2007, demand has plunged. In at least the last 33 years, the U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate has only dropped as low as 8.8 million units once -- in December 1981 -- with records stretching back to January 1976.
Amid a global recession, U.S. sales fell to 13.2 million units in 2008, from 16.2 million in 2007. The slide continued, with demand ranging from 9.1 million to 9.9 million in the first half of this year.
End of clunkers
But the cash-for-clunkers program's official run from July 24 to Aug. 24 bumped the sales rate to 11.1 million in July and 13.7 million in August.
Now that consumers can't receive $3,500 to $4,500 for trading in gas guzzlers for new vehicles with better fuel efficiency, they aren't rushing to purchase vehicles, Edmunds.com analysts said.
“Many people regard February as the darkest month of the recession, but even then the SAAR was higher, at 9.1 million units,” Edmunds.com senior statistician Zhenwei Zhou said in a statement.
The sales rate from Aug. 25 to Aug. 31 fell to 8.3 million, Edmunds.com said. That week's transactions saw 6.4 percent of transactions carried over from the cash-for-clunkers program, which allowed dealers to submit requests for voucher repayment for cars not yet delivered from the factory.
Demand increased to 8.9 million in the first five days of September, with 3.6 percent of sales from cash for clunkers. The rate slipped to 8.7 million from Sept. 6 to Sept. 12, Edmunds.com said, with 3.3 percent of deals leftover from cash for clunkers.
The slide in demand also has lowered the average dealer profit per vehicle, the consumer auto site said. The average was $981 the week leading up to the July 24 launch of cash for clunkers, and that steadily increased to $1,494 the last week of the program. As of last week, average dealer profit had slipped to $1,303 per vehicle.
Edmunds.com compiles its sales and pricing data from transaction reports.