Auto executives around the world are predicting gloomy times for Detroit and Europe and more gains for Asia's automakers.
In a survey released Wednesday by the international consulting firm KPMG LLP, 88 percent of respondents say they expect Asian vehicle brands to increase market share "at the expense" of North American and European brands over the next five years.
The annual KPMG survey also found that a majority of the 140 executives expect their profits to decline or remain flat through this decade.
This year, 58 percent of the executives predicted that North American brands will lose market share worldwide over the next five years, and 28 percent predicted that European brands will decline.
Of the Asian brands, 65 percent predicted growth for Japanese automakers, 79 percent predicted gains for the Koreans, 77 percent predicted growth for Chinese brands, and 52 percent envisioned more market share for Indian brands.
Although the numbers are only opinions, the survey is noteworthy for two reasons. It provides a glimpse into the competitive mind-set of industry decision makers in North America, Europe and Asia. It also provides a year-over-year measurement of their attitudes.
Betsy Meter, a partner in KPMG's U.S. automotive practice, says there has been a deterioration in the outlook for North America's industry.
Last year, by comparison, the survey found 45 percent of the executives believing that Big 3 global market share would decline in the next five years.
The group also is more pessimistic this year about the North American industry's effort to become more competitive. Two years ago, 50 percent of those asked said they believed the North American industry would become more efficient and competitive. Last year, 39 percent expressed that belief. This year, 32 percent said they believed it.
"There's clearly a lot more pessimism out there this year," Meter says. "And yet there are some real positives in the marketplace. Auto sales are still very strong. I'm not sure they should be so gloomy."
Other opinions captured in the KPMG survey include:
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