Suppliers of diesel particulate filters will benefit from huge sales growth, predicts a German study.
The market for diesel filters will almost triple to E295 million next year from E100 million in 2004, says B&D Forecast, based in Leverkusen, Germany.
The market will double again to E663 million by 2006. By 2012, the market could be worth E1.9 billion.
"The big growth in demand for particulate filters will give suppliers the same boost that electronic stability systems did a few years ago," says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, head of B&D Forecast.
He says Faurecia, which supplies filters to Ford, Mercedes-Benz and PSA/Peugeot-Citroen, and Robert Bosch, which supplies diesel technology to VW group, will benefit the most from the growth.
Bosch plans to start mass production of filters in 2005. Faurecia is substantially expanding production.
Other filter suppliers such as Emitec and Eberspächer also can expect high sales growth and good margins, says Dudenhöffer.
A commitment by German automakers to fit filters to all new diesel cars they sell in Germany by 2009 is one factor that will drive growth.
Another is a proposal to introduce a tax incentive worth around E600 in Germany next year on diesel cars fitted with filters. Yet another push will come if the EU introduces tough Euro 5 emission norms of 2.5 milligrams per kilometer for particulate matter around 2010.
B&D Forecast predicts that all diesel cars sold in Europe will be fitted with filters by 2010. The forecast for this year is 5 percent.