Experts: '13 certified sales to rise 10%-plus
Overall used prices to remain flat
 | NADA Used Car Guide's Banks: “We expect big things.” |
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ORLANDO -- Certified used-vehicle sales will increase at least 10 percent and overall used-vehicle prices will hold steady at high levels this year, analysts predict.
Sales last year of certified used, also known as certified pre-owned, cars and trucks rose 5 percent to 1,834,746 units, data compiled by the Automotive News Data Center and Autodata Corp. show.
Sales of those vehicles in January rose 15 percent from January 2012 to 150,630.
"We expect big things for the CPO market," Jonathan Banks, an analyst at NADA Used Car Guide, said after a press conference here during the National Automobile Dealers Association convention this month.
"With lease returns up 15 percent this year and more participation in CPO sales by virtually every manufacturer and the dealerships being more engaged, you're probably talking double-digit increases in CPO sales this year," Banks said.
The Manheim 2013 Used Car Market Report, which was released at the dealers' convention, also says certified used-vehicle sales are poised to rise this year.
"With the supply of potentially certifiable units growing in 2013, for the first time in years, total CPO sales will surely rise again," the report says. "Indeed the 2 million mark will be quite reachable."
 | Manheim’s Webb: High overall used-vehicle prices |
Overall used-vehicle prices in 2012 rose 1 percent, Manheim economist Tom Webb said. That gain is on top of increases in the three previous years and means that used-vehicle values started 2013 32 percent higher than in 2008.
"So that's huge equity for customers with trade-in vehicles compared to a few years back," he said.
The NADA guide forecasts that overall used-vehicle prices in 2013 will be flat compared with 2012.
That's mainly because the projected increase in off-lease vehicles and a 5 percent increase in the supply of retired rental vehicles will create downward pressure on prices of 1- to 3-year-old vehicles of 1 to 3 percent, depending on the segment.
But that will be offset by a decrease in the number of older used vehicles and a projected increase in their price of 1 to 3 percent, Banks said.
He added: "There are going to be two distinct markets: late-model used and the older-used market."
You can reach Arlena Sawyers at asawyers@crain.com.
