Wrangler tops residual value forecast
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The 2012 Jeep Wrangler will hold its value better in five years than any other vehicle, Kelley Blue Book predicts.
The Wrangler has risen to the top of the compact SUV category in separate rankings by ALG and Kelley Blue Book that predict future resale values.
Five years from now, Kelley Blue Book predicts, a 2012 Wrangler will be worth 55.0 percent of its current new-vehicle price. That projected residual value put it at the top of Kelley Blue Book's compact vehicle category, up from second place last year, when the 2011 Wrangler's residual value was forecast at 45.2 percent.
Eric Ibara, director of residual consulting at Kelley Blue Book, says his company is "amazed" at how well the Wrangler holds its value. It competes in a category with such vehicles as the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV-4 and Hyundai Tucson but is perceived as different from them, he says. "It's easy seeing those vehicles competing against each other, but there's not much competition for a Wrangler," Ibara says.
Kelley Blue Book's predictions are for five years to reflect the typical length of new-vehicle ownership. In contrast, ALG's predictions are for 36 months, the typical length of a lease.
ALG set its overall 2012 model residual projections lower than it had set projections for 2011 and 2010, says Raj Sundaram. That's because an uptick in leasing that started last year will result in more off-lease vehicles returning to the market in greater numbers and that is expected to lower used-vehicle prices in three years.
Sundaram, a senior vice president at DealerTrack Holdings Inc., ALG's former owner, is a consultant to ALG during the transition to new owner TrueCar Inc.
Kelley Blue Book named Toyota as it best resale-value brand with a predicted residual of 40.5 percent, up from 38.5 percent last year. Jeep, buoyed by Wrangler, jumped to second place in the top 10 brand ranking from 8th a year ago. Subaru was ALG's top mainstream brand at 50.0 percent, down from 53.0 percent last year.
Both companies forecast Lexus to have the highest resale value among luxury brands.
You can reach Arlena Sawyers at asawyers@crain.com.
