Jeff Schuster, executive director for automotive forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, offered these numbers to the Society of Automotive Analysts recently.
This is his prediction -- rounded to single digits with no tenths of a percent -- on the share of the U.S. light-vehicle market that hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles combined will make up in coming years.
2010 -- 3%
2011 -- 4%
2012 -- 5%
2013 -- 6%
2014 -- 7%
2015 -- 8%
2020 -- 10.5%
Remember, this is not all EVs. In 2015, for example, he expects the market to have more than 140,000 plug-in hybrids, but less than 100,000 EVs.
You can look at this forecast and see confirmation of your belief that electrification is more hype than reality.
But I look at it and note that a 3 percent market share in 2010 is roughly what Kia and GMC had. Don’t you think marketers at either brand would be ecstatic if they could pick up a point of market share every year from now through 2015?