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Small gains add up

Here’s yet another forecast for hybrids and other electrified vehicles.

Jeff Schuster, executive director for automotive forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, offered these numbers to the Society of Automotive Analysts recently.

This is his prediction -- rounded to single digits with no tenths of a percent -- on the share of the U.S. light-vehicle market that hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles combined will make up in coming years.

• 2010 -- 3%

• 2011 -- 4%

• 2012 -- 5%

• 2013 -- 6%

• 2014 -- 7%

• 2015 -- 8%

• 2020 -- 10.5%

Remember, this is not all EVs. In 2015, for example, he expects the market to have more than 140,000 plug-in hybrids, but less than 100,000 EVs.

You can look at this forecast and see confirmation of your belief that electrification is more hype than reality.

But I look at it and note that a 3 percent market share in 2010 is roughly what Kia and GMC had. Don’t you think marketers at either brand would be ecstatic if they could pick up a point of market share every year from now through 2015?

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