Analyst sees another quarter, another output gain

Jeff Schuster, executive director of automotive forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates, along with other analysts, is predicting steady gains for the industry this year.

Specifically, he told the Society of Automotive Analysts recently that almost every quarter's light-vehicle production in North America in 2011 will be better than the year-earlier level. Here are his numbers:

Production, in million units
Quarter20102011
1Q2.93.2
2Q3.13.3
3Q33
4Q2.93.1
But of course, there are winners and losers. Here are his production forecasts by maker. You can assume that production is linked to sales, though inventory changes and exports, particularly by the European makers, mean that it's not a one-to-one link.
North American production changes by maker in 2011
BMW47% Honda6%
Chrysler/Fiat14% Hyundai19%
Daimler14% Mazda16%
Ford5% Mitsubishi-11%
Subaru-2% Nissan/Renault-2%
GM2% Toyota6%
   VW21%
What do you think? Is he too optimistic, or too cautious?

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