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Mystery solved! 11.1 million sales this year

John K. Teahen Jr. is the senior editor of Automotive News
Sorry, forecasters. It looks like an 11.1 million year.

The first half of 2010 is in the books at 5,615,000 sales. So what does that portend for the full year? In the past 10 years, the first half has contributed 50.72 percent of the year's U.S. deliveries.

Applying that percentage to the 5,615,000 sales in the first half of this year yields a 2010 figure of 11,070,584 cars and light trucks.

Most prognosticators (guessers) look for more than that, maybe 11.5 or 11.6 million.

The much-desired 12 million is possible, but it will be a stretch. Sales would have to average 1,064,167 a month for the rest of the year. Thus far in 2010, only March and May have brought a million.

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