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China's growth looks great -- unless it stalls

A new report from the global team at J.D. Power warns that China's auto industry is heading for a fall in the next five years. The danger: Too many new assembly plants are going up in pursuit of spectacular sales growth there.

Maybe that will happen, maybe it won't. And anyway, China is a world away from the Ford and Cadillac dealerships of Auto Row, America.

But don't imagine for a minute that we are immune from a Chinese crash. Chinese leaders won't sit by and allow workers to be laid off. Nor, for that matter, will the big automakers who are now investing heavily there want to see their new factories sitting idle.

Exports will be their logical pressure release. Maybe not to the United States, but how about Mexico? Brazil? The Middle East?

At a minimum, China's big new capacity will make the art of global planning a bit dicey for a while.

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