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General Motors' survival is going to rest on a flock of lame ducks.

This fall, a lame-duck Congress will decide whether to create a $25 billion rescue fund for the auto industry.

Normally, Congress might delay such desperate measures until Barack Obama is inaugurated on January 20. But GM doesn't have the luxury of time. In the wake of the industry's sales collapse in September and October, it's a safe bet that GM cannot sustain its current cash losses for more than a few months.

As of last summer, the company was burning an estimated $1 billion per month.

According to one estimate, it now is burning close to $2 billion a month. If so, GM may suffer a financial crisis this winter.

Officially, we won't know just how bad things are until Friday, when GM announces third-quarter earnings. The company needs a cushion of $11 billion to $14 billion to cover day-to-day operating expenses.

As of June 30, GM had $26 billion in cash and credit. Alarms will sound if that cash hoard dips under $20 billion. The bottom line: If Congress delays a bailout until Obama's inauguration, it may be too late.

During the campaign, Obama pledged to make $25 billion available to automakers, and that's in addition to the $25 billion earmarked for fuel-efficient vehicles.

But it's a political nonstarter for the Democrats if GM uses some of that cash to finance a merger with Chrysler, then lays off tens of thousands of workers. A straight bailout would be less radioactive.

Look for congressional Democrats to cobble together a deal during a lame-duck session this fall. Each of the Detroit 3 would likely get a piece of the action.

To justify an emergency loan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can refer to a study released today that predicts the loss of nearly 2.5 million jobs if two automakers (read GM and Chrysler) go bankrupt.

The study, authored by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., concludes that such a scenario would result in the loss of 239,000 automaker jobs, plus 795,000 supplier jobs. An additional 1.4 million jobs would disappear as automotive layoffs have their ripple effect on the nation's economy.

When UAW President Ron Gettelfinger makes his congratulatory phone call to the president-elect, one can imagine the conversation that will ensue. Look for a bailout proposal to gather momentum this month.