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TOKYO (Reuters) -- Toyota will likely post a 40 percent slide in annual profit, missing its profit estimates on weak sales in North America and slower growth in China, the Nikkei business daily reported.

The Yomiuri newspaper reported that the world's biggest automaker was set to revise down its forecasts and plans to reduce output in Europe.

Toyota's operating profit was likely to be around 1.3 trillion yen ($12.8 billion), below its current forecast of 1.6 trillion yen, the Nikkei said.

A Reuters Estimates consensus forecast from 20 analysts puts Toyota's operating profit at 1.63 trillion yen.

Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa Asset Management, said the report may have come as a surprise for individual investors, but it is unlikely to trigger a free fall in Toyota shares.

"In a market like this, the key decision is what you unload and what you hold. You will end up selling everything if you sell companies with weaker earnings," Ogawa said.

"Given that the price of fuel and some raw materials is falling, earnings in the auto sector are likely to start to recover in six months to a year. This could be a good buying opportunity for long-term investors."

A Toyota spokeswoman declined to comment on the reports.

The Nikkei paper said Toyota may be unable to achieve its current group sales estimate of 25 trillion yen, which already represents a 5 percent decline on the year.

It may also fall short of this year's global sales target of 9.5 million units. It has already cut its 2008 and 2009 sales targets once this year as high fuel prices hammer demand for large cars and pickup trucks.

A strong yen and slumping U.S. sales pushed Toyota's operating profit 39 percent lower in the April-June period.