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For as long as most of us can remember, the U.S. automobile business has had cycles. Whenever there was a down cycle, you knew you had to hang in there, and before long, things would come back to normal. And then you would see the cycle head upward again.

It's not going to be that simple this time.

We should get used to the fact that it's never going to be the way it was a generation ago. I enjoy reminiscing about what it was like when gasoline was two bits a gallon and you could spend a couple of bucks and be able to cruise all weekend. It won't be too long before we gather our grandchildren around us and tell those kinds of stories.

But they are just stories. There have been fundamental changes during the past couple decades that are changing the business permanently.

We will be affected continually by the rising cost of petroleum. And it will affect a lot more than just the price of gasoline. It will change our lives and reduce our disposable income as the cost of everything goes up along with motor fuel.

We won't have scarcities. The United States can still outbid just about everyone else. But it will cost a lot more.

And since we probably won't want to give up on so many of our creature comforts, we'll spend more money to keep what we have.

Big cars with fuel-efficient engines will cost more.

If more of us start driving small cars, we'll want them outfitted like larger, more luxurious vehicles, similar to how the Japanese buy cars.

And we're going to be more fickle. Our tastes will change overnight as the next thing hits the marketplace. Whether it's $5-a-gallon gasoline or a new electric car that reduces the cost of ownership, consumers will react, and we'll see massive changes in buying habits.

Predicting customer patterns will be difficult — or maybe impossible — because their habits won't be a good gauge.

It will be a great time to watch market shares shift because some companies that were falling could recover with new, innovative products. The public's taste will be all over the map, which means it will be a challenging time with great opportunities.