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ReprintsNearly 20% of U.S. cars will be hybrids by 2020, forecast says
Hans Greimel
Automotive News
May 27, 2009 - 1:47 pm ET
TOKYO -- The global market for hybrid cars will grow more than 23-fold to 11.28 million vehicles by 2020 and account for nearly one in five cars sold in the United States, JPMorgan predicts. Demand for the fuel-efficient gasoline-electric vehicles will be spurred partly by stricter government regulation of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States and Europe, JPMorgan auto analysts wrote in their 88-page annual hybrid-vehicle report, released May 22. Global hybrid-vehicle volume totaled 480,000 in 2008, accounting for a mere 0.7 percent of global sales. But business is seen swelling to 11.28 million in the next 12 years, with hybrids accounting for 13.3 percent of global sales, JPMorgan says. In the United States, hybrids will capture 19.4 percent of the market by then, the investment bank predicts. Also fueling the surge will be the falling costs of hybrid drivetrains. The unit cost of a hybrid system -- including the batteries, motors and computer hardware -- is seen dropping to $1,890 by 2020 from an estimated $5,667 last year, JPMorgan says. This will price hybrid vehicles more closely to traditional gasoline-powered cars. The trend means big business for suppliers of hybrid components, such as Denso Corp., Aisin Seiki Co., Panasonic Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. JPMorgan sees the worldwide market for hybrid parts climbing to ¥2.238 trillion, or $23.60 billion at current exchange rates, in 2020 from $3.16 billion last year. |
You can reach Hans Greimel at hgreimel@crain.com.
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